Futures Market Blog

02.12.09

Don’t forget Valentine’s Day.

Retail sales better than expected for the first gain in seven months while weekly jobless claims were worse than expected. Sales are still lower 9.7% year on year. One major element affecting the value of retail sales is the devaluation of oil. This has led to some yield curve plays with 30 year bonds lower, 10 years higher. Most other trends persist overnight.

Crude should find some psychological support at $35 a barrel.

Current views, speculations and suggestions

Mar Yen: neg with res at 112.10.
Mar Swiss: negative with res at 86.85
Mar EC:  neg with res at 129.85
Mar Canadian: pos with support at 7995
Mar BP:  potential reversal day thanks to Mr. King
Mar ES: neg with resistance at 838.60
Mar NQ: potential reversal day
Mar Russell: neg with res at 45200
Mar Mini Dow: neg with res at 795.90
Apr Gold: pos with support at 921 and 899
Mar Silver: positive with support at 13.17 and 12.83
Mar crude:  neg with res at 37.750

Longer term spread idea: from 12.22 we are long April crude at 44.90 and short Dec crude at 52.50 for a differential of 7.60.  On 1.07 could have bought April at 52.10 and sold Dec at 59.83 for 7.73.

Mar Soybeans: positive with support at 9.705
Mar Wheat: neg with res at 5.524
Mar Ten Year: potential reversal day

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International Markets

Mar Euro Bund: pos with support at 123.93
Mar Dax: pos with support at 4439
Mar NK:  potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.