Weekly Futures Report
Posted in Commodity News Updates, Futures, Options, advice, analysis, commodities, loss, market trading, profit, selling, weekly futures report on January 22nd, 2009 by Current News – Comments Off
01.21.09
—————————Last————————-Last Week 1.13
Mar Crude—————43.82————————-44.37
Mar Heat—————–138.40———————–146.55
Mar XRB (Blended Gas)——119.88——————–120.52
Crude oil rallied 6.6% on Wednesday after it was revealed that the new administration will announce a bank recovery or rescue plan in the coming weeks. This news was revealed during the confirmation hearings of the proposed Secretary of the Treasury, the former head of the New York Federal Reserve. Stocks rallied after having a triple digit decline on Tuesday which coincided with the inauguration of the 44th president of the United States, Barack Obama. The equity market decline was not due to a lack of confidence in the new administration but rather was a fearful response to the state of the banking system, both domestically and internationally. Noteworthy was the very steep decline in the value of the British pound as it was feared that Barclays may be nationalized by the British government. The rally on Wednesday was seen as a countertrend, relief rally by a market whose main trend remains lower. Mexico said that crude output fell by 9.2% last year to 2.8 million barrels per day. Another thing worth mentioning is that the contango or the relationship of the front months to the deferred trading months is beginning to collapse under the weight of its own success. Previously, traders were buying the front month or storing actual physical crude oil and selling the deferred months which were trading many dollars higher for a double-digit return after expenses. With the rally in the front month on Wednesday, the spread collapsed. The reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Department of Energy were delayed one day because of the holiday for Martin Luther King on Monday. Traders are expecting to see a build in crude stocks of 1.4 million barrels.
———————Support————–Resistance
Mar Crude————–37.00—————-46.00
Mar Heat————–129.80—————-150.50
Mar XRB—————109.00—————-125.00
METALS
————————Last—————-Last Week (0/7)
Feb Gold—————–853.10—————808.80
Mar Silver—————–11.26—————10.475
Apr Platinum————–938.10 ————–936.50
Gold rallied sharply over the past week and showed a certain amount of independence by not being swayed by erratic currency movements or the alternating strength and weakness of the stock market. The British pound plunged largely on fears of nationalization. Consequently this crisis in paper assets drove buyers into gold. During this time, gold is being viewed as an alternative currency. There is a great transparency to gold. There are no earnings surprises with gold. If anything, a banking crisis is a gold market positive. Stories of charlatan money managers are another gold market positive. Even money market funds breaking “the buck” act as a support for gold buyers. So gold on any sharp setback for whatever reason will find buyers $25-$30 below the last print.
————————–Support———————-Resistance
Feb Gold——————–810.00———————–891.00
Mar Silver ——————-10.70————————11.65
Apr Plat———————900.00———————–989.00
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SOFTS
—————————-Last———————–Last Week
Mar Coffee——————-117.70———————–115.05
Mar Sugar ——————–12.67————————11.60
Coffee and sugar both traded higher due to weather concerns in key South American growing regions. Also, particularly in the case of coffee, the lower value for the British pound was a softs market positive. London is a key trading center for both coffee and cocoa and with a lower pound, physical business saw an increase in activity.
—————————–Support——————Resistance
Mar Coffee———————-112.50——————120.50
Mar Sugar———————–11.82——————-13.01
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——————————-Last——————–Last Week
Mar Soybeans——————-10.256———————9.715
Mar Corn———————–3.924———————-3.664
Soybeans and corn both rallied. The harvest was delayed due to wet weather. Physical demand has been good. Both soybeans and corn have not been hampered by a generally stronger dollar. Key growing regions in South America continue to be hurt by hot dry weather and this continues to encourage higher prices.
——————————Support———————-Resistance
Mar Soybeans——————– 9.50 ———————– 10.61
Mar Corn————————-3.60————————4.19
Chuck Kespert
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
